Machine translation quality has steadily improved over the years, achieving near-perfect translations in recent benchmarks. These high-quality outputs make it difficult to distinguish between state-of-the-art models and to identify areas for future improvement. In this context, automatically identifying texts where machine translation systems struggle holds promise for developing more discriminative evaluations and guiding future research. In this work, we address this gap by formalizing the task of translation difficulty estimation, defining a text's difficulty based on the expected quality of its translations. We introduce a new metric to evaluate difficulty estimators and use it to assess both baselines and novel approaches. Finally, we demonstrate the practical utility of difficulty estimators by using them to construct more challenging benchmarks for machine translation. Our results show that dedicated models outperform both heuristic-based methods and LLM-as-a-judge approaches, with Sentinel-src achieving the best performance. Thus, we release two improved models for difficulty estimation, Sentinel-src-24 and Sentinel-src-25, which can be used to scan large collections of texts and select those most likely to challenge contemporary machine translation systems.

Human translators linger on some words and phrases more than others, and predicting this variation is a step towards explaining the underlying cognitive processes. Using data from the CRITT Translation Process Research Database, we evaluate the extent to which surprisal and attentional features derived from a Neural Machine Translation (NMT) model account for reading and production times of human translators. We find that surprisal and attention are complementary predictors of translation difficulty, and that surprisal derived from a NMT model is the single most successful predictor of production duration. Our analyses draw on data from hundreds of translators operating across 13 language pairs, and represent the most comprehensive investigation of human translation difficulty to date.

The high-quality translation results produced by machine translation (MT) systems still pose a huge challenge for automatic evaluation. Current MT evaluation pays the same attention to each sentence component, while the questions of real-world examinations (e.g., university examinations) have different difficulties and weightings. In this paper, we propose a novel difficulty-aware MT evaluation metric, expanding the evaluation dimension by taking translation difficulty into consideration. A translation that fails to be predicted by most MT systems will be treated as a difficult one and assigned a large weight in the final score function, and conversely. Experimental results on the WMT19 English-German Metrics shared tasks show that our proposed method outperforms commonly used MT metrics in terms of human correlation. In particular, our proposed method performs well even when all the MT systems are very competitive, which is when most existing metrics fail to distinguish between them. The source code is freely available at https://github.com/NLP2CT/Difficulty-Aware-MT-Evaluation.